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Canada

Cape Spear


MP elect: Tom Osborne (LPC)

Latest projection: May 11, 2025
LPC safe

Candidates | Cape Spear


Liberal Tom Osborne
Conservative Corey Curtis
NDP Brenda Walsh
Green Kaelem Tingate
Animal Protection Mike Peach

Candidates are listed on the Elections Canada website here. This list will be updated if it changes during the campaign.



Cape Spear 69% ± 5% LPC 26% ± 5% CPC 5% ± 2% NDP LPC 2025 68.6% 338Canada vote projection | May 11, 2025
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by professional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Cape Spear >99% LPC <1% CPC <1% NDP Odds of winning | May 11, 2025
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.9%), likely (90% to 99.9%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).
[▲▼: movement since previous update]

Popular vote projection | Cape Spear

LPC 69% ± 5% CPC 26% ± 5% NDP 5% ± 2% Popular vote projection % | Cape Spear 75 70 65 60 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-02-01 2025-03-01 2025-04-01 2025-05-01 2025-06-01 2025-07-01 Election 2025 LPC CPC NDP May 11, 2025 2025-01-12 LPC 39% CPC 35% NDP 24% 2025-01-12 2025-01-19 LPC 39% CPC 34% NDP 24% 2025-01-19 2025-01-26 LPC 40% CPC 34% NDP 24% 2025-01-26 2025-02-02 LPC 41% CPC 33% NDP 23% 2025-02-02 2025-02-09 LPC 45% CPC 31% NDP 21% 2025-02-09 2025-02-16 LPC 50% CPC 29% NDP 18% 2025-02-16 2025-02-23 LPC 52% CPC 28% NDP 17% 2025-02-23 2025-03-02 LPC 55% CPC 25% NDP 17% 2025-03-02 2025-03-09 LPC 56% CPC 24% NDP 17% 2025-03-09 2025-03-16 LPC 59% CPC 23% NDP 15% 2025-03-16 2025-03-18 LPC 64% CPC 22% NDP 11% 2025-03-18 2025-03-20 LPC 64% CPC 22% NDP 11% 2025-03-20 2025-03-21 LPC 64% CPC 22% NDP 12% 2025-03-21 2025-03-22 LPC 64% CPC 22% NDP 12% 2025-03-22 2025-03-23 LPC 64% CPC 22% NDP 12% 2025-03-23 2025-03-24 LPC 64% CPC 21% NDP 12% 2025-03-24 2025-03-25 LPC 67% CPC 20% NDP 11% 2025-03-25 2025-03-26 LPC 67% CPC 20% NDP 10% 2025-03-26 2025-03-27 LPC 67% CPC 21% NDP 10% 2025-03-27 2025-03-28 LPC 67% CPC 21% NDP 10% 2025-03-28 2025-03-29 LPC 67% CPC 21% NDP 9% 2025-03-29 2025-03-30 LPC 67% CPC 21% NDP 9% 2025-03-30 2025-03-31 LPC 66% CPC 23% NDP 9% 2025-03-31 2025-04-01 LPC 66% CPC 23% NDP 9% 2025-04-01 2025-04-02 LPC 67% CPC 24% NDP 8% 2025-04-02 2025-04-03 LPC 67% CPC 24% NDP 8% 2025-04-03 2025-04-04 LPC 67% CPC 24% NDP 8% 2025-04-04 2025-04-05 LPC 67% CPC 24% NDP 8% 2025-04-05 2025-04-06 LPC 67% CPC 23% NDP 8% 2025-04-06 2025-04-07 LPC 67% CPC 23% NDP 9% 2025-04-07 2025-04-08 LPC 67% CPC 23% NDP 9% 2025-04-08 2025-04-09 LPC 66% CPC 23% NDP 9% 2025-04-09 2025-04-10 LPC 66% CPC 22% NDP 9% 2025-04-10 2025-04-11 LPC 66% CPC 22% NDP 9% 2025-04-11 2025-04-12 LPC 65% CPC 23% NDP 9% 2025-04-12 2025-04-13 LPC 65% CPC 23% NDP 9% 2025-04-13 2025-04-14 LPC 65% CPC 23% NDP 9% 2025-04-14 2025-04-15 LPC 65% CPC 23% NDP 9% 2025-04-15 2025-04-16 LPC 65% CPC 23% NDP 9% 2025-04-16 2025-04-17 LPC 65% CPC 23% NDP 9% 2025-04-17 2025-04-18 LPC 66% CPC 22% NDP 9% 2025-04-18 2025-04-19 LPC 66% CPC 23% NDP 9% 2025-04-19 2025-04-20 LPC 66% CPC 23% NDP 9% 2025-04-20 2025-04-21 LPC 66% CPC 23% NDP 9% 2025-04-21 2025-04-22 LPC 65% CPC 23% NDP 9% 2025-04-22 2025-04-23 LPC 64% CPC 24% NDP 9% 2025-04-23 2025-04-24 LPC 64% CPC 24% NDP 9% 2025-04-24 2025-04-25 LPC 64% CPC 25% NDP 9% 2025-04-25 2025-04-26 LPC 64% CPC 25% NDP 9% 2025-04-26 2025-04-27 LPC 64% CPC 24% NDP 9% 2025-04-27 2025-04-28 LPC 65% CPC 25% NDP 8% 2025-04-28 2025-04-30 LPC 69% CPC 26% NDP 5% 2025-04-30 2025-05-11 LPC 69% CPC 26% NDP 5% 2025-05-11 Trudeau resigns Carney LPC leader

Odds of winning | Cape Spear

LPC >99% NDP <1% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-02-01 2025-03-01 2025-04-01 2025-05-01 2025-06-01 2025-07-01 Election 2025 LPC NDP May 11, 2025 2025-01-12 LPC 75% NDP <1% 2025-01-12 2025-01-19 LPC 78% NDP <1% 2025-01-19 2025-01-26 LPC 80% NDP <1% 2025-01-26 2025-02-02 LPC 90% NDP <1% 2025-02-02 2025-02-09 LPC 98% NDP <1% 2025-02-09 2025-02-16 LPC >99% NDP <1% 2025-02-16 2025-02-23 LPC >99% NDP <1% 2025-02-23 2025-03-02 LPC >99% NDP <1% 2025-03-02 2025-03-09 LPC >99% NDP <1% 2025-03-09 2025-03-16 LPC >99% NDP <1% 2025-03-16 2025-03-18 LPC >99% NDP <1% 2025-03-18 2025-03-20 LPC >99% NDP <1% 2025-03-20 2025-03-21 LPC >99% NDP <1% 2025-03-21 2025-03-22 LPC >99% NDP <1% 2025-03-22 2025-03-23 LPC >99% NDP <1% 2025-03-23 2025-03-24 LPC >99% NDP <1% 2025-03-24 2025-03-25 LPC >99% NDP <1% 2025-03-25 2025-03-26 LPC >99% NDP <1% 2025-03-26 2025-03-27 LPC >99% NDP <1% 2025-03-27 2025-03-28 LPC >99% NDP <1% 2025-03-28 2025-03-29 LPC >99% NDP <1% 2025-03-29 2025-03-30 LPC >99% NDP <1% 2025-03-30 2025-03-31 LPC >99% NDP <1% 2025-03-31 2025-04-01 LPC >99% NDP <1% 2025-04-01 2025-04-02 LPC >99% NDP <1% 2025-04-02 2025-04-03 LPC >99% NDP <1% 2025-04-03 2025-04-04 LPC >99% NDP <1% 2025-04-04 2025-04-05 LPC >99% NDP <1% 2025-04-05 2025-04-06 LPC >99% NDP <1% 2025-04-06 2025-04-07 LPC >99% NDP <1% 2025-04-07 2025-04-08 LPC >99% NDP <1% 2025-04-08 2025-04-09 LPC >99% NDP <1% 2025-04-09 2025-04-10 LPC >99% NDP <1% 2025-04-10 2025-04-11 LPC >99% NDP <1% 2025-04-11 2025-04-12 LPC >99% NDP <1% 2025-04-12 2025-04-13 LPC >99% NDP <1% 2025-04-13 2025-04-14 LPC >99% NDP <1% 2025-04-14 2025-04-15 LPC >99% NDP <1% 2025-04-15 2025-04-16 LPC >99% NDP <1% 2025-04-16 2025-04-17 LPC >99% NDP <1% 2025-04-17 2025-04-18 LPC >99% NDP <1% 2025-04-18 2025-04-19 LPC >99% NDP <1% 2025-04-19 2025-04-20 LPC >99% NDP <1% 2025-04-20 2025-04-21 LPC >99% NDP <1% 2025-04-21 2025-04-22 LPC >99% NDP <1% 2025-04-22 2025-04-23 LPC >99% NDP <1% 2025-04-23 2025-04-24 LPC >99% NDP <1% 2025-04-24 2025-04-25 LPC >99% NDP <1% 2025-04-25 2025-04-26 LPC >99% NDP <1% 2025-04-26 2025-04-27 LPC >99% NDP <1% 2025-04-27 2025-04-28 LPC >99% NDP <1% 2025-04-28 2025-04-30 LPC >99% NDP <1% 2025-04-30 2025-05-11 LPC >99% NDP <1% 2025-05-11 Trudeau resigns Carney LPC leader

Recent electoral history | Cape Spear



2019 2021 2025 Proj. LPC 69% ± 5% 48.6% 54.7% 68.6% CPC 26% ± 5% 19.6% 20.4% 25.6% NDP 5% ± 2% 28.7% 23.1% 5.1% IND 0% ± 1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% GPC 0% ± 1% 2.2% 0.0% 0.3% PPC 0% ± 0% 0.7% 1.8% 0.0%
Data from 2019 and 2021 are those transposed onto new electoral map.
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